President Trump’s extraordinary attack on Iran, which took out the country’s supreme leader, has echoes of U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East that history shows hasn’t always been a success.
It also goes against Trump’s long-storied criticism of his predecessors intervening abroad and the “forever wars” that resulted — something that has jostled those at the heart of his “America First” MAGA base.
But as with any gamble, regime change in Iran could net Trump a political win should a more U.S.-friendly band of leadership emerge.
Where things go from here is anyone’s guess.
Trump gave some clues Monday as to his thinking for why he struck Iran now after decades of turmoil with the U.S.
“Our objectives are clear. First, we’re destroying Iran’s missile capabilities, and you see that happening on an hourly basis,” he said. “Second, we’re annihilating their navy; already we’ve knocked out 10 ships. They’re at the bottom of the sea. Third, we’re ensuring that the world’s number one sponsor of terror can never obtain a nuclear weapon,” he added.
“And finally, we’re ensuring the Iranian regime cannot continue to arm, fund and direct terrorists’ armies outside of their borders,” Trump said. “We will easily prevail.”
Those comments came amid myriad rationale offered by Trump and his administration in the aftermath of strikes that killed Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, a figure detested worldwide and by some in Iran.
Trump boasted to ABC’s Jonathan Karl about Khamenei’s killing, saying: “I got him before he got me. They tried twice. Well, I got him first.”
That was an apparent reference to Iranian-linked operatives who were plotting to assassinate Trump in 2024, the Department of Justice said at the time, in what was believed to be retaliation for the killing of Qassem Soleimani, an Iranian military general Trump had killed in 2020.
Khamenei’s killing left questions swirling about regime change for Trump and his administration.
Trump on Saturday suggested the Iranian people should team up with military and police forces to take over the country, but those forces severely clashed with antiregime protesters in Iran earlier this year, killing thousands.
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth offered a slightly different view Monday, telling reporters at the Pentagon that the goal is not regime change.
“This is not a so-called regime change war … but the regime sure did change, and the world is better off for it,” Hegseth said in a fiery defense of the Iranian operation.
Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) said on Fox News’s “Sunday Morning Futures” that he hopes the next leader of Iran — who they may be — would open the door for economic opportunities
“It all depends on the — whoever the leader is, the new leader is in Iran,” Scott said. “Hopefully, somebody will show up that cares about the people of Iran and says, ‘Enough’s enough. We want to get back and be part of the world economy and give opportunity to all the people of Iran.’ That’s what all of us would like.”
The ayatollah’s killing is another marker in Trump’s second term, during which he has done much to remake the world stage. But that has left some of his domestic supporters scratching their heads at why Trump, who campaigned heavily on domestic policy, is spending much of his time reshaping other countries instead of focusing more on the U.S. Some conservative influencers characterized the Iran operation as a betrayal.
Leading that charge has been former Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.). She wrote in a lengthy post, in the hours after the strikes began, that Trump went against his supporters who were now being “force fed and gas lighted” about enforcing peace through war, which she lamented was a similar sentiment to that invoked at the start of the Iraq and Afghanistan wars.
“Another foreign war for foreign people for foreign regime change. For what?” Greene wrote.
Longtime Trump supporter Tucker Carlson called the attack on Iran “disgusting and evil.” He predicted the operations would eventually backfire on Trump.
“This is going to shuffle the deck in a profound way,” Carlson said.
The attack, with its potential for a long-term conflict, also is not garnering much public support, with 59 percent of survey respondents disapproving of the strike, according to a CNN poll released Monday. Sixty percent said they don’t believe Trump has a clear plan for handling the situation.
Democrats have also had to delicately dance around Trump’s Iran operation largely because of the supreme leader’s killing.
Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.), the vice chair of the Senate Intelligence Committee, said to CNN on Sunday that taking out Khamenei could open the door to a grassroots antiregime uprising, and that, although such an outcome would be desired by many, it seems unlikely.
“We have had very little visibility into what happens next after the supreme leader is eliminated,” Warner said, noting distinct differences from regime changes in Syria and Venezuela, largely because the Iranian regime has been “deeply embedded” for 47 years.
“I think they will fight vociferously to try to maintain their power,” Warner said.
Some support for regime change is also waning from foreign leaders, the most vocal of whom has been U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer, who said his country would not back regime change “from the skies.”
So far, what is left of the Islamic Republic’s regime is digging in their heels, suggesting that the process of replacing the ayatollah is already in progress while Iranian forces launch attacks across the region. Areas that seldomly get caught up in military operations have been targeted, including Dubai, Jordan, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia.
“We will not negotiate,” Ali Larijani, Iran’s security chief, wrote on the social platform X on Monday. “Trump plunged the region into chaos with his ‘delusional fantasies’ and now fears more American troop casualties.”
The question of regime change and attacking Iran goes against many of the criticisms lobbed by Trump himself for years, even well before he entered politics.
Social media over the weekend was digging up old Trump social media posts dating to 2011 and 2012 in which he railed against former President Obama by suggesting he would start a war in Iran to get reelected. Trump has also criticized former President George W. Bush for starting the Iraq and Afghanistan wars, which dragged on for decades.
Some online users said Trump’s old posts “aged like gas station sushi.”
Rema Rahman is White House editor of The Hill.
